The Haywired Reports

Be Informed The Haywired Reports

About the Haywired Reports

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is providing the brains — and science — behind the HayWired Scenario. Over the next several months, the USGS team will publish the results of its work in a series of three very technical, highly detailed, and informative volumes, each one providing a realistic picture of the impact of a 7.0 quake on the Hayward fault line with the epicenter in Oakland. As each one is released, it will be posted below.

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Volume I

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

The first volume in the HayWired scenario describes the hazards during and after the hypothetical M 7.0 earthquake hits the Bay Area on April 18, 2018 at 4:18PM PST. This earthquake will produce fires and other “cascading disaster” effects such as shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent aftershocks. Volume I contains detailed analysis — data, charts, maps — breaking down each of the geological impacts in its own mini-report. Learn more in USGS’s geonarrative.

This is not a real event or earthquake prediction, but instead, a look at what could happen.

Chance of one (or more) M6.7 earthquakes in the Bay Area before 2043.

Slip, Liquefaction, & Landslide

Post-mainshock will impact entire region.

20% Chance of a ≥ M6.4 aftershock in the months and years after the mainshock.

Volume II

Engineering Implications

The second volume in the HayWired Scenario provides insights into damage to and recovery of buildings, lifelines, and other infrastructure that could result from the shaking and other geologic effects of a M7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake.

450 large fires near the epicenter, burning area equivalent to ~80,000 single-family dwellings. Hundreds of deaths and property losses approaching $30 billion.


800 potential deaths and an additional 18,000 non-fatal injuries.

22,000 people requiring fire-department extrication from stalled elevators. An additional 2,500 people would require rescue from heavily damaged buildings.

$83 billion property and direct business interruption losses (excludes losses caused by post-earthquake fires)

Volume III

Social and Economic Impacts

The third volume in the HayWired Scenario provides insights concerning the social and economic impacts that may result from the geologic, environmental, and engineering influence of a M7.0 earthquake.

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